I’m going to share something personal – when I’m in a new building I love to find out where all the doors go. Part of me says that it’s a safety issue. In the event of an emergency, it’s important to know how to get out of the building quickly and it’s critical that you don’t get lost in some service corridor. Another part of me, perhaps the more honest part, just likes to explore. I especially like to investigate the “back of house” areas in office buildings and hotels, figuring out which doors and hallways lead where. I can’t tell you how satisfying it feels when I’ve discovered a “secret” shortcut. The risk in this activity, which happens more than I’d like to admit, is finding myself in some area of the building where all the doors are locked, including the one I came through, and eventually getting spit out of a fire exit into a dark alley. Coincidentally, decisions in mining projects can feel similar. Some decisions are like two-way doors that you can walk through, look around, then go back if you don’t like what you see. Other decisions are like one-way doors that once you’ve gone through, you can’t go back.
The decision-making framework of one-way and two-way doors has been popularized by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos. One-way door decisions are hard (or impossible) to reverse. In the context of a mining project, this can mean purchasing equipment, pouring mill foundations, or sinking an access shaft. In all these cases, it’s tough to get back to your original position after taking these actions. On the other hand, two-way doors are easily reversible or have limited long-term consequences. For example, running a pilot plant, trialing a new haul truck, or creating three different processing plant layouts in a CAD environment. Identifying whether a decision is a one-way or two-way door requires professional judgement and will depend on the context of the broader project. Asking a question like, “What are the long-term consequences of making this decision?” can help guide the assessment. Note the emphasis on the consequences of making the decision rather than being right or wrong – deciding to trial a haul truck is low stakes whether it works out or not but ordering a fleet of haul trucks has significant long-term consequences.
The planning and execution phases of a mining project differ starkly in the kind of doors they contain. The execution phase of a mining project, or of any project costing hundreds of millions or billions of dollars, is just a series of one-way doors. Because of the resources deployed and the level of coordination required to complete a project of that scale, decisions made during the execution phase are challenging and costly (and in some cases, impossible) to reverse. Let’s say a gigantic SAG mill arrives on site but can’t be placed on its pedestals because of unforeseen construction interference and lifting distances. Ordering and receiving the SAG mill was a one-way door, completing civil and structural construction was a one-way door, assembling the crane at site was a one-way door. You’re now locked into the problem, with no options that will save the budget or schedule.
On the other hand, the planning phase is replete with two-ways doors. Given the scale of the total project, every decision in the planning phase can be considered a two-way door. Early studies may account for 1% of total project costs, with total engineering accounting for 3-5%. Given the relative cost and potential value of improving the plan for a billion-dollar mining project, it makes sense to try things, to experiment, and to redesign in the planning phase when decisions are not set in stone or poured in concrete. Often people will treat portions of work in the planning phase as one-way doors, missing the bigger picture. “We’re throwing away $100,000 in testwork if we switch the grind size now.” Perhaps, but that $100,000 in testwork could represent a $10,000,000 construction decision. It’s much easier to test your assumptions now and walk back through that door than to find out you’re wrong after commissioning, with the door locked behind you.
Another dimension of the one-way and two-way door framework is the time and effort applied to making decisions. One-way door decisions require slow, careful, and methodical processes. In a mining context, this means the planning phase should take the time it needs to reach a concept and design that everyone can support. It shouldn’t be rushed or pushed ahead on a timeline that doesn’t allow for the level of thought and experimentation a successful billion-dollar project requires. Conversely, two-way door decisions should be pursued quickly and aggressively since, relatively speaking, they can be easily reversed. This means that the activities in the planning phase should be fast-paced and filled with experimentation. Should we investigate what this project would look like with a fully autonomous mining fleet? Should we try this novel flotation reagent in the pilot plant? Should we run the financial model with a fully hedged position? Yes, yes, yes, and much more.
The key to unlocking a two-way door mindset is to keep the bigger picture in mind. Every decision in the planning phase represents 10-10,000x higher stakes during the execution phase so it’s always worth understanding what information could lead to a better decision, aggressively pursuing valuable information and dismissing less valuable lines of inquiry.
When I’ve been aggressively testing doors and find myself spit out into a back alley, it’s easy enough to walk back to the front entrance and start again. Unfortunately, mining projects are much higher stakes and not recoverable with a brisk walk around the block. When executing a billion-dollar project, it’s critical that every one-way door is planned, checked, and double-checked before walking through, otherwise you might find yourself in the dark alley of project outcomes.